Japan’s Land Value Winners
What 20 Years of Official Data Actually Shows
Hey guys, quick plug before we start:
First, something serious: we finished our Otaru, Myoko, Asahikawa, and Miyazaki Investment Guides. They’re packed with the kind of data we wish existed when we first started buying in Japan.
Second, Japanese language course built specifically for skiers.
We took our two-month Japan ski trip and asked: what Japanese would we actually need to know to live this trip properly? with an emphasis on staying safe in the backcountry.
Third, something silly: The YukiHomes Beanie. If you want this sick beanie, hit the preorder link, we’ve already shipped out 15 and were only making 50, so they will be limited.
Japan is often described as a country where property prices don’t rise. That narrative is mostly right but of course nothing in this world is that clean.
When you look at Japan’s most robust long-run land price dataset, a much clearer picture emerges:
Outside of a few star ski towns, growth has been highly concentrated in a small number of major metropolitan areas, while the majority of the country has remained flat or declined.
This article breaks down what the official data says, which cities have actually grown, and why these trends may continue with important caveats.
The backbone of this analysis is 公示地価 (Koji-Chika), the Land Price Publication released annually by Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT).
What Koji-Chika is
Annual government-published land values
Based on ~26,000 standardized sites nationwide
Valued as of January 1 each year
MEASURING LAND ONLY.
Japan does not have an MLS-style system that publicly tracks individual home sale prices over time that we can easily use to access sales price data.
So these Land value surveys are the best we got…
Remember this is land value, not total home or condo prices.
It under-captures scarcity, income potential, and trophy assets, but it is still the best long-run comparative signal we have.
